Tampines Rovers 3–3 Albirex Niigata S

Tampines Rovers

FT

3 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Albirex Niigata S

4/9/2022

Premier League · Round 4Town Square at Our Tampines Hub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Tampines Rovers43%

×Draw21%

Albirex Niigata S35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampines RoversExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata S

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.81

Tampines Rovers

2.01

Albirex Niigata S

1.81

Tampines Rovers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 82 away

2.51

creates per match

2.20

1.41

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Tampines Rovers

2.51

Albirex Niigata S

2.20

allows per match

Tampines Rovers

1.41

Albirex Niigata S

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampines Rovers+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampines Rovers ↓

Albirex Niigata S →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Tampines Rovers or draw

65%

Tampines Rovers or Albirex Niigata S

79%

Draw or Albirex Niigata S

57%

Winning margin

Tampines Rovers wins by 2+

24%

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tampines Rovers 1+ goals

87%

Tampines Rovers 2+ goals

59%

Tampines Rovers 3+ goals

32%

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

84%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

54%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Tampines Rovers (draw refunded)

55%

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampines Rovers at home — creates 2.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampines Rovers attack 2.51 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.01

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Tampines Rovers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tampines Rovers scores more

43%

level

21%

Albirex Niigata S scores more

35%

Tampines Rovers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tampines Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff