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Tampico Madero vs Leones Negros UDG — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Leones Negros UDG
Leones Negros UDG
10/20/2018Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 12Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tampico Madero43%
×Draw28%
Leones Negros UDG29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampico Madero
1.28
Leones Negros UDG
1.00

Tampico Madero creates 28% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 133 away

creates per match

Tampico Madero
1.15
Leones Negros UDG
1.05

allows per match

Tampico Madero
0.95
Leones Negros UDG
1.42

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Leones Negros UDG+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Leones Negros UDG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw
71%
Tampico Madero or Leones Negros UDG
72%
Draw or Leones Negros UDG
57%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+
19%
Leones Negros UDG wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals
72%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
37%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
14%
Leones Negros UDG 1+ goals
63%
Leones Negros UDG 2+ goals
26%
Leones Negros UDG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
60%
Leones Negros UDG (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Leones Negros UDG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.15 + Leones Negros UDG defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Leones Negros UDG attack 1.05 + Tampico Madero defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tampico Madero scores more
43%
level
28%
Leones Negros UDG scores more
29%

Tampico Madero at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tampico Madero 4–1 Leones Negros UDG

Tampico Madero beat Leones Negros UDG 4-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero).