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Tampico Madero vs Correcaminos Uat — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Correcaminos Uat
Correcaminos Uat
8/16/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tampico Madero50%
×Draw26%
Correcaminos Uat24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampico Madero
1.50
Correcaminos Uat
0.94

Tampico Madero creates 60% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 115 away

creates per match

Tampico Madero
1.15
Correcaminos Uat
0.92

allows per match

Tampico Madero
0.95
Correcaminos Uat
1.84

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Correcaminos Uat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Correcaminos Uat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw
76%
Tampico Madero or Correcaminos Uat
74%
Draw or Correcaminos Uat
50%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+
25%
Correcaminos Uat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals
78%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
44%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
19%
Correcaminos Uat 1+ goals
61%
Correcaminos Uat 2+ goals
24%
Correcaminos Uat 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
68%
Correcaminos Uat (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Correcaminos Uat away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.15 + Correcaminos Uat defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.50

Correcaminos Uat attack 0.92 + Tampico Madero defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tampico Madero scores more
50%
level
26%
Correcaminos Uat scores more
24%

Tampico Madero at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Tampico Madero 0–0 Correcaminos Uat

Tampico Madero and Correcaminos Uat drew 0-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 16, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero).