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Tampico Madero vs Celaya — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tampico Madero
Tampico Madero
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Celaya
Celaya
1/19/2019Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Tampico Madero38%
×Draw29%
Celaya34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampico Madero
1.16
Celaya
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 119 away

creates per match

Tampico Madero
1.19
Celaya
1.15

allows per match

Tampico Madero
1.02
Celaya
1.13

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par
Celaya+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Celaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw
66%
Tampico Madero or Celaya
71%
Draw or Celaya
62%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+
16%
Celaya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals
69%
Tampico Madero 2+ goals
32%
Tampico Madero 3+ goals
11%
Celaya 1+ goals
66%
Celaya 2+ goals
29%
Celaya 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)
53%
Celaya (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 64 matches

Celaya away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.19 + Celaya defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.16

Celaya attack 1.15 + Tampico Madero defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tampico Madero scores more
38%
level
29%
Celaya scores more
34%

Tampico Madero at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampico Madero vs Celaya

Celaya beat Tampico Madero 3-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on January 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero).