Tampico Madero 2–1 Atlante FC: Result & Stats

Tampico Madero

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlante FC

J. Ocejo 56' (pen)

D. De Buen 5' (pen)

Chico 34'

2/7/2020

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Tamaulipas (Tampico y Ciudad Madero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Tampico Madero37%

×Draw29%

Atlante FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tampico MaderoExpected goals in this matchAtlante FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.08

Tampico Madero

1.13

Atlante FC

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 152 away

1.15

creates per match

1.21

0.95

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Tampico Madero

1.15

Atlante FC

1.21

allows per match

Tampico Madero

0.95

Atlante FC

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tampico Madero+0.00on par

Atlante FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampico Madero ↓

Atlante FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tampico Madero or draw

66%

Tampico Madero or Atlante FC

71%

Draw or Atlante FC

63%

Winning margin

Tampico Madero wins by 2+

15%

Atlante FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tampico Madero 1+ goals

68%

Tampico Madero 2+ goals

31%

Tampico Madero 3+ goals

11%

Atlante FC 1+ goals

66%

Atlante FC 2+ goals

29%

Atlante FC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tampico Madero (draw refunded)

52%

Atlante FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampico Madero at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

Atlante FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampico Madero attack 1.15 + Atlante FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Atlante FC attack 1.21 + Tampico Madero defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tampico Madero scores more

37%

level

29%

Atlante FC scores more

34%

Tampico Madero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tampico Madero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

D. De BuenPenalty

34'

38'

41'

45'

47'

50'

56'

J. OcejoPenalty

69'

S. Silva← E. Vera

75'

78'

82'

82'

83'

84'

89'

89'

90+1'

Ó. Manzanarez← J. Ocejo

90+1'

C. Calvo← S. Martínez

Tampico

Atlante

1

Britos

6

Luna

13

▼

23

7

4

30

▼

Martínez

10

Rivera

26

Ibarra

19

⚽

Chico

24

▼

1

4

30

5

⚽

14

25

10

9

⚽

▼

Ocejo

8

Ortega

13

▼

Villa

18

▼

Prieto

Manager: G. Espinoza

75'▲L. Torres←▼R. Prieto

82'▲J. Orozco←▼D. Villa

90+1'▲Ó. Manzanarez←▼J. Ocejo

Tampico Madero substitutes

23Torres27Orozco26Manzanarez11López16García17Lozano22Venegas

Manager: A. Diego

45'▲J. Robles←▼O. Islas

69'▲S. Silva←▼E. Vera

90+1'▲C. Calvo←▼S. Martínez

Atlante FC substitutes

25Robles11Silva2Calvo5España14Juárez22Lomelí27Mejía