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Tampere United vs Inter Turku II — Suomen Cup 2018

Tampere United
Tampere United
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
A. Bright 120+2' (pen)
J. Rantala 120+1' (pen)
O. Kangaslahti 120+5' (pen)
E. Oksanen 120+3' (pen)
M. Louhela 120+2' (pen)
G. Voca 120+1' (pen)
4/17/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundTammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tampere United7%
×Draw9%
Inter Turku II84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tampere United
1.52
Inter Turku II
4.79

Inter Turku II creates 215% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tampere United
0.33
Inter Turku II
6.57

allows per match

Tampere United
3.00
Inter Turku II
2.71

finishing

Tampere United+0.00on par
Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tampere United ↓

Inter Turku II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–34%
0–45%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
69%31%

Double chance

Tampere United or draw
16%
Tampere United or Inter Turku II
91%
Draw or Inter Turku II
93%

Winning margin

Tampere United wins by 2+
3%
Inter Turku II wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Tampere United 1+ goals
78%
Tampere United 2+ goals
45%
Tampere United 3+ goals
20%
Inter Turku II 1+ goals
99%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
94%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

Tampere United (draw refunded)
8%
Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tampere United at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 6.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tampere United attack 0.33 + Inter Turku II defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Inter Turku II attack 6.57 + Tampere United defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 4.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Tampere United scores more
7%
level
9%
Inter Turku II scores more
84%

Inter Turku II at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
G. VocaPenalty
120+1'
J. RantalaPenalty
120+2'
M. LouhelaPenalty
120+2'
A. BrightPenalty
120+3'
E. OksanenPenalty
120+3'
J. HeikkinenMissed penalty
120+4'
A. AaltonenMissed penalty
120+4'
N. JalkanenMissed penalty
120+5'
O. KangaslahtiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tampere United vs Inter Turku II

Tampere United and Inter Turku II drew 0-0 in Suomen Cup on April 17, 2024.

Goals: G. Voca (120+1' pen), J. Rantala (120+1' pen), M. Louhela (120+2' pen), A. Bright (120+2' pen), E. Oksanen (120+3' pen), O. Kangaslahti (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.