Tambov U20 vs Akhmat Grozny U20

Tambov U20

PST

11:00

Akhmat Grozny U20

4/25/2020

Youth Championship · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tambov U2046%

×Draw23%

Akhmat Grozny U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tambov U20Expected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.48

Tambov U20

1.83

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.48

Tambov U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 90 away

1.54

creates per match

1.09

1.88

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Tambov U20

1.54

Akhmat Grozny U20

1.09

allows per match

Tambov U20

1.88

Akhmat Grozny U20

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tambov U20+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambov U20 ↓

Akhmat Grozny U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Tambov U20 or draw

69%

Tambov U20 or Akhmat Grozny U20

77%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny U20

54%

Winning margin

Tambov U20 wins by 2+

25%

Akhmat Grozny U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tambov U20 1+ goals

84%

Tambov U20 2+ goals

54%

Tambov U20 3+ goals

28%

Akhmat Grozny U20 1+ goals

77%

Akhmat Grozny U20 2+ goals

43%

Akhmat Grozny U20 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tambov U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Akhmat Grozny U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambov U20 at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

Akhmat Grozny U20 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.13 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambov U20 attack 1.54 + Akhmat Grozny U20 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Akhmat Grozny U20 attack 1.09 + Tambov U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tambov U20 scores more

46%

level

23%

Akhmat Grozny U20 scores more

31%

Tambov U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tambov U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff