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Tambankulu Callies vs Manzini Wanderers — Premier League 2020

Tambankulu Callies
Tambankulu Callies
FT
1 – 1
Manzini Wanderers
Manzini Wanderers
5/9/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Tambankulu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tambankulu Callies41%
×Draw28%
Manzini Wanderers32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tambankulu Callies
1.29
Manzini Wanderers
1.10

Tambankulu Callies creates 17% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 69 away

creates per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.05
Manzini Wanderers
0.99

allows per match

Tambankulu Callies
1.21
Manzini Wanderers
1.52

finishing

Tambankulu Callies+0.00on par
Manzini Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tambankulu Callies ↓

Manzini Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tambankulu Callies or draw
68%
Tambankulu Callies or Manzini Wanderers
72%
Draw or Manzini Wanderers
59%

Winning margin

Tambankulu Callies wins by 2+
18%
Manzini Wanderers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tambankulu Callies 1+ goals
72%
Tambankulu Callies 2+ goals
37%
Tambankulu Callies 3+ goals
14%
Manzini Wanderers 1+ goals
67%
Manzini Wanderers 2+ goals
30%
Manzini Wanderers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tambankulu Callies (draw refunded)
56%
Manzini Wanderers (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tambankulu Callies at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 43 matches

Manzini Wanderers away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.52 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tambankulu Callies attack 1.05 + Manzini Wanderers defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Manzini Wanderers attack 0.99 + Tambankulu Callies defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tambankulu Callies scores more
41%
level
28%
Manzini Wanderers scores more
32%

Tambankulu Callies at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tambankulu Callies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tambankulu Callies 1–1 Manzini Wanderers

Tambankulu Callies and Manzini Wanderers drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Tambankulu Stadium in Tambankulu.