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Tamaraceite vs UD San Fernando — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Tamaraceite
Tamaraceite
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
UD San Fernando
UD San Fernando
9/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tamaraceite43%
×Draw27%
UD San Fernando31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamaraceite
1.38
UD San Fernando
1.13

Tamaraceite creates 22% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 76 away

creates per match

Tamaraceite
1.78
UD San Fernando
1.26

allows per match

Tamaraceite
0.99
UD San Fernando
0.97

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par
UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

UD San Fernando →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw
69%
Tamaraceite or UD San Fernando
73%
Draw or UD San Fernando
57%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+
20%
UD San Fernando wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals
75%
Tamaraceite 2+ goals
40%
Tamaraceite 3+ goals
16%
UD San Fernando 1+ goals
68%
UD San Fernando 2+ goals
31%
UD San Fernando 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)
58%
UD San Fernando (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

UD San Fernando away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.97 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + UD San Fernando defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.38

UD San Fernando attack 1.26 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tamaraceite scores more
43%
level
27%
UD San Fernando scores more
31%

Tamaraceite at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamaraceite vs UD San Fernando

UD San Fernando beat Tamaraceite 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.