Tamaraceite 2–4 Panadería Pulido: Result & Stats

Tamaraceite

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Panadería Pulido

9/15/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Tamaraceite45%

×Draw26%

Panadería Pulido29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TamaraceiteExpected goals in this matchPanadería Pulido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.15

Tamaraceite

1.50

Panadería Pulido

1.15

Tamaraceite creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 94 away

1.78

creates per match

1.31

0.99

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Tamaraceite

1.78

Panadería Pulido

1.31

allows per match

Tamaraceite

0.99

Panadería Pulido

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tamaraceite+0.00on par

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamaraceite ↓

Panadería Pulido →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tamaraceite or draw

71%

Tamaraceite or Panadería Pulido

74%

Draw or Panadería Pulido

55%

Winning margin

Tamaraceite wins by 2+

22%

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tamaraceite 1+ goals

78%

Tamaraceite 2+ goals

44%

Tamaraceite 3+ goals

19%

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

68%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

32%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tamaraceite (draw refunded)

61%

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Tamaraceite at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.99 · 83 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Tamaraceite attack 1.78 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + Tamaraceite defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tamaraceite scores more

45%

level

26%

Panadería Pulido scores more

29%

Tamaraceite at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tamaraceite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tamaraceite vs Panadería Pulido

Panadería Pulido beat Tamaraceite 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 15, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Juan Guedes in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.

Tamaraceite vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tamaraceite vs Panadería Pulido