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Tamai vs Union Feltre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Tamai
Tamai
PST
13:30
Union Feltre
Union Feltre
3/22/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 32Stadio Comunale di Tamai

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Tamai25%
×Draw23%
Union Feltre52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamai
1.19
Union Feltre
1.82

Union Feltre creates 53% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tamai
1.07
Union Feltre
2.00

allows per match

Tamai
1.64
Union Feltre
1.31

finishing

Tamai+0.00on par
Union Feltre+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamai ↓

Union Feltre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tamai or draw
48%
Tamai or Union Feltre
77%
Draw or Union Feltre
75%

Winning margin

Tamai wins by 2+
10%
Union Feltre wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Tamai 1+ goals
70%
Tamai 2+ goals
33%
Tamai 3+ goals
12%
Union Feltre 1+ goals
84%
Union Feltre 2+ goals
54%
Union Feltre 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Tamai (draw refunded)
32%
Union Feltre (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Union Feltre away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamai attack 1.07 + Union Feltre defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Union Feltre attack 2.00 + Tamai defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Tamai scores more
25%
level
23%
Union Feltre scores more
52%

Union Feltre at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Union Feltre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tamai host Union Feltre

March 22, 2020: Tamai take on Union Feltre in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tamai host Union Feltre at Stadio Comunale di Tamai.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.