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Tamai vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Tamai
Tamai
PST
13:00
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
4/5/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 34Stadio Comunale di Tamai (Tamai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tamai33%
×Draw26%
Delta Porto Tolle41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tamai
1.22
Delta Porto Tolle
1.38

Delta Porto Tolle creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 30 away

creates per match

Tamai
1.07
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

Tamai
1.64
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

Tamai+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tamai ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tamai or draw
59%
Tamai or Delta Porto Tolle
74%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
67%

Winning margin

Tamai wins by 2+
14%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tamai 1+ goals
70%
Tamai 2+ goals
34%
Tamai 3+ goals
12%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
75%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
40%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tamai (draw refunded)
45%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tamai at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tamai attack 1.07 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + Tamai defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tamai scores more
33%
level
26%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
41%

Delta Porto Tolle at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tamai face Delta Porto Tolle (Serie D - Girone C)

Serie D - Girone C returns with Tamai hosting Delta Porto Tolle. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Tamai host Delta Porto Tolle at Stadio Comunale di Tamai (Tamai).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.