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Takovo vs Real Podunavci — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Takovo
Takovo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Podunavci
Real Podunavci
11/25/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 15Stadion FK Takovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Takovo41%
×Draw29%
Real Podunavci29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Takovo
1.20
Real Podunavci
0.96

Takovo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 74 away

creates per match

Takovo
1.24
Real Podunavci
0.99

allows per match

Takovo
0.94
Real Podunavci
1.16

finishing

Takovo+0.00on par
Real Podunavci+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Takovo ↓

Real Podunavci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Takovo or draw
71%
Takovo or Real Podunavci
71%
Draw or Real Podunavci
59%

Winning margin

Takovo wins by 2+
18%
Real Podunavci wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Takovo 1+ goals
70%
Takovo 2+ goals
34%
Takovo 3+ goals
12%
Real Podunavci 1+ goals
62%
Real Podunavci 2+ goals
25%
Real Podunavci 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Takovo (draw refunded)
59%
Real Podunavci (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Takovo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Real Podunavci away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Takovo attack 1.24 + Real Podunavci defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.20

Real Podunavci attack 0.99 + Takovo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Takovo scores more
41%
level
29%
Real Podunavci scores more
29%

Takovo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Takovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Takovo 0–1 Real Podunavci

Real Podunavci beat Takovo 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Takovo in Gornji Milanovac.