Taipower 3–0 Taipei Red Lions: Result & Stats

Taipower

FT

3 – 0

Taipei Red Lions

6/30/2019

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 5Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Taipower67%

×Draw19%

Taipei Red Lions14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TaipowerExpected goals in this matchTaipei Red Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.88

Taipower

2.19

Taipei Red Lions

0.88

Taipower creates 149% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 40 away

1.82

creates per match

0.70

1.05

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Taipower

1.82

Taipei Red Lions

0.70

allows per match

Taipower

1.05

Taipei Red Lions

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taipower+0.00on par

Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipower ↓

Taipei Red Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Taipower or draw

86%

Taipower or Taipei Red Lions

81%

Draw or Taipei Red Lions

33%

Winning margin

Taipower wins by 2+

43%

Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Taipower 1+ goals

89%

Taipower 2+ goals

64%

Taipower 3+ goals

37%

Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals

59%

Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals

22%

Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Taipower (draw refunded)

83%

Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipower at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.05 · 66 matches

Taipei Red Lions away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.55 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipower attack 1.82 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.19

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.70 + Taipower defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Taipower scores more

67%

level

19%

Taipei Red Lions scores more

14%

Taipower at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Taipower will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff