Taipei Red Lions 1–6 Taipower: Result & Stats

Taipei Red Lions

FT

1 – 6

Taipower

5/3/2020

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 2Ming Chuan University Taoyuan Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Taipei Red Lions19%

×Draw22%

Taipower59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taipei Red LionsExpected goals in this matchTaipower

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.94

Taipei Red Lions

0.99

Taipower

1.94

Taipower creates 96% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 56 away

0.85

creates per match

1.57

2.30

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Taipei Red Lions

0.85

Taipower

1.57

allows per match

Taipei Red Lions

2.30

Taipower

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taipei Red Lions+0.00on par

Taipower+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taipei Red Lions ↓

Taipower →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Taipei Red Lions or draw

41%

Taipei Red Lions or Taipower

78%

Draw or Taipower

81%

Winning margin

Taipei Red Lions wins by 2+

7%

Taipower wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Taipei Red Lions 1+ goals

63%

Taipei Red Lions 2+ goals

26%

Taipei Red Lions 3+ goals

8%

Taipower 1+ goals

86%

Taipower 2+ goals

58%

Taipower 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Taipei Red Lions (draw refunded)

24%

Taipower (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taipei Red Lions at home — creates 0.85, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

Taipower away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taipei Red Lions attack 0.85 + Taipower defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.99

Taipower attack 1.57 + Taipei Red Lions defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Taipei Red Lions scores more

19%

level

22%

Taipower scores more

59%

Taipower at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Taipower will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff