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Taichung Futuro vs Tainan City — AFC Cup 2018

Taichung Futuro
Taichung Futuro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tainan City
Tainan City
10/26/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Kaohsiung National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Taichung Futuro57%
×Draw21%
Tainan City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Taichung Futuro
2.04
Tainan City
1.17

Taichung Futuro creates 74% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Taichung Futuro
1.25
Tainan City
0.83

allows per match

Taichung Futuro
1.50
Tainan City
2.83

finishing

Taichung Futuro+0.00on par
Tainan City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taichung Futuro ↓

Tainan City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Taichung Futuro or draw
79%
Taichung Futuro or Tainan City
79%
Draw or Tainan City
43%

Winning margin

Taichung Futuro wins by 2+
34%
Tainan City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Taichung Futuro 1+ goals
87%
Taichung Futuro 2+ goals
60%
Taichung Futuro 3+ goals
33%
Tainan City 1+ goals
69%
Tainan City 2+ goals
33%
Tainan City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)
73%
Tainan City (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taichung Futuro at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Tainan City away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taichung Futuro attack 1.25 + Tainan City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Tainan City attack 0.83 + Taichung Futuro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Taichung Futuro scores more
57%
level
21%
Tainan City scores more
21%

Taichung Futuro at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Taichung Futuro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Taichung Futuro vs Tainan City

Taichung Futuro beat Tainan City 2-1 in AFC Cup on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kaohsiung National Stadium in Gaoxiong.