Taichung Futuro 3–0 NTUPES: Result & Stats

Taichung Futuro

FT

3 – 0

NTUPES

8/14/2019

Taiwan Football Premier League · Round 6Taiyuan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Taichung Futuro71%

×Draw17%

NTUPES12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Taichung FuturoExpected goals in this matchNTUPES

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.84

Taichung Futuro

2.37

NTUPES

0.84

Taichung Futuro creates 182% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 30 away

1.96

creates per match

0.90

0.79

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Taichung Futuro

1.96

NTUPES

0.90

allows per match

Taichung Futuro

0.79

NTUPES

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Taichung Futuro+0.00on par

NTUPES+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Taichung Futuro ↓

NTUPES →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Taichung Futuro or draw

88%

Taichung Futuro or NTUPES

83%

Draw or NTUPES

29%

Winning margin

Taichung Futuro wins by 2+

48%

NTUPES wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Taichung Futuro 1+ goals

91%

Taichung Futuro 2+ goals

68%

Taichung Futuro 3+ goals

42%

NTUPES 1+ goals

57%

NTUPES 2+ goals

21%

NTUPES 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Taichung Futuro (draw refunded)

86%

NTUPES (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Taichung Futuro at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 52 matches

NTUPES away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Taichung Futuro attack 1.96 + NTUPES defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.37

NTUPES attack 0.90 + Taichung Futuro defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Taichung Futuro scores more

71%

level

17%

NTUPES scores more

12%

Taichung Futuro at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Taichung Futuro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff