Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tadamon Sour vs Shabab El Bourj — Premier League 2019

Tadamon Sour
Tadamon Sour
CANC
12:30
Shabab El Bourj
Shabab El Bourj
9/21/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Sour Stadium (Sour)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Tadamon Sour46%
×Draw26%
Shabab El Bourj28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tadamon Sour
1.51
Shabab El Bourj
1.13

Tadamon Sour creates 34% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 15 away

creates per match

Tadamon Sour
0.89
Shabab El Bourj
1.13

allows per match

Tadamon Sour
1.13
Shabab El Bourj
2.13

finishing

Tadamon Sour+0.00on par
Shabab El Bourj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tadamon Sour ↓

Shabab El Bourj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tadamon Sour or draw
72%
Tadamon Sour or Shabab El Bourj
74%
Draw or Shabab El Bourj
54%

Winning margin

Tadamon Sour wins by 2+
23%
Shabab El Bourj wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tadamon Sour 1+ goals
78%
Tadamon Sour 2+ goals
44%
Tadamon Sour 3+ goals
19%
Shabab El Bourj 1+ goals
68%
Shabab El Bourj 2+ goals
31%
Shabab El Bourj 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tadamon Sour (draw refunded)
62%
Shabab El Bourj (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tadamon Sour at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.13 · 61 matches

Shabab El Bourj away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tadamon Sour attack 0.89 + Shabab El Bourj defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shabab El Bourj attack 1.13 + Tadamon Sour defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tadamon Sour scores more
46%
level
26%
Shabab El Bourj scores more
28%

Tadamon Sour at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tadamon Sour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tadamon Sour host Shabab El Bourj

September 21, 2019: Tadamon Sour take on Shabab El Bourj in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tadamon Sour host Shabab El Bourj at Sour Stadium (Sour).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.