Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tacuary vs Atyrá — Division Intermedia 2018

Tacuary
Tacuary
PST
22:00
Atyrá
Atyrá
10/10/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 30Estadio Toribio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tacuary43%
×Draw26%
Atyrá31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tacuary
1.44
Atyrá
1.19

Tacuary creates 21% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 62 away

creates per match

Tacuary
1.32
Atyrá
1.13

allows per match

Tacuary
1.24
Atyrá
1.55

finishing

Tacuary+0.00on par
Atyrá+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tacuary ↓

Atyrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tacuary or draw
69%
Tacuary or Atyrá
74%
Draw or Atyrá
57%

Winning margin

Tacuary wins by 2+
21%
Atyrá wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tacuary 1+ goals
76%
Tacuary 2+ goals
42%
Tacuary 3+ goals
18%
Atyrá 1+ goals
70%
Atyrá 2+ goals
33%
Atyrá 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tacuary (draw refunded)
58%
Atyrá (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tacuary at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

Atyrá away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.55 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tacuary attack 1.32 + Atyrá defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atyrá attack 1.13 + Tacuary defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tacuary scores more
43%
level
26%
Atyrá scores more
31%

Tacuary at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tacuary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tacuary vs Atyrá — Match Preview

Tacuary face Atyrá on October 10, 2020 in this Division Intermedia fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tacuary host Atyrá at Estadio Toribio Vargas.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.