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Tabora United vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Tabora United
Tabora United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Young Africans
Young Africans
12/23/2023Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 14Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tabora United22%
×Draw29%
Young Africans50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tabora United
0.77
Young Africans
1.32

Young Africans creates 71% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 112 away

creates per match

Tabora United
1.07
Young Africans
1.60

allows per match

Tabora United
1.04
Young Africans
0.46

finishing

Tabora United+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tabora United ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Tabora United or draw
50%
Tabora United or Young Africans
71%
Draw or Young Africans
78%

Winning margin

Tabora United wins by 2+
7%
Young Africans wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tabora United 1+ goals
54%
Tabora United 2+ goals
18%
Tabora United 3+ goals
4%
Young Africans 1+ goals
73%
Young Africans 2+ goals
38%
Young Africans 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Tabora United (draw refunded)
31%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tabora United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.46 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tabora United attack 1.07 + Young Africans defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.77

Young Africans attack 1.60 + Tabora United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Tabora United scores more
22%
level
29%
Young Africans scores more
50%

Young Africans at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Tabora United 0–1 Young Africans

Young Africans beat Tabora United 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.