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Szekszárd vs Paksi SE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Szekszárd
Szekszárd
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
11/22/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Szekszárdi Városi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Szekszárd41%
×Draw24%
Paksi SE II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Szekszárd
1.61
Paksi SE II
1.45

Szekszárd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Szekszárd
1.27
Paksi SE II
1.36

allows per match

Szekszárd
1.53
Paksi SE II
1.96

finishing

Szekszárd+0.00on par
Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Szekszárd ↓

Paksi SE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Szekszárd or draw
65%
Szekszárd or Paksi SE II
76%
Draw or Paksi SE II
59%

Winning margin

Szekszárd wins by 2+
21%
Paksi SE II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Szekszárd 1+ goals
80%
Szekszárd 2+ goals
48%
Szekszárd 3+ goals
22%
Paksi SE II 1+ goals
77%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
42%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Szekszárd (draw refunded)
55%
Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Szekszárd at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Szekszárd attack 1.27 + Paksi SE II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.61

Paksi SE II attack 1.36 + Szekszárd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Szekszárd scores more
41%
level
24%
Paksi SE II scores more
35%

Szekszárd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Szekszárd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southwest: Szekszárd 1–0 Paksi SE II

Szekszárd beat Paksi SE II 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 22, 2023.

The match was played at Szekszárdi Városi Stadion in Szekszárd.