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Syrianska FC vs Nyköping — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Syrianska FC
Syrianska FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nyköping
Nyköping
8/13/2023Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 16Södertälje Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Syrianska FC37%
×Draw23%
Nyköping40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Syrianska FC
1.63
Nyköping
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 72 away

creates per match

Syrianska FC
1.82
Nyköping
1.88

allows per match

Syrianska FC
1.51
Nyköping
1.43

finishing

Syrianska FC+0.00on par
Nyköping+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Syrianska FC ↓

Nyköping →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Syrianska FC or draw
60%
Syrianska FC or Nyköping
77%
Draw or Nyköping
63%

Winning margin

Syrianska FC wins by 2+
18%
Nyköping wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Syrianska FC 1+ goals
80%
Syrianska FC 2+ goals
48%
Syrianska FC 3+ goals
22%
Nyköping 1+ goals
82%
Nyköping 2+ goals
50%
Nyköping 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)
48%
Nyköping (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Syrianska FC at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.51 · 73 matches

Nyköping away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Syrianska FC attack 1.82 + Nyköping defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.63

Nyköping attack 1.88 + Syrianska FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Syrianska FC scores more
37%
level
23%
Nyköping scores more
40%

Nyköping at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nyköping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Syrianska FC vs Nyköping

Nyköping beat Syrianska FC 1-0 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Södertälje Fotbollsarena in Södertälje.