Sydney 2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers: Result & Stats

Sydney

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Western Sydney Wanderers

4/13/2024

A-League · Round 24Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Sydney47%

×Draw23%

Western Sydney Wanderers30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SydneyExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.38

Sydney

1.79

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.38

Sydney creates 30% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 105 away

1.80

creates per match

1.51

1.25

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Sydney

1.80

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.51

allows per match

Sydney

1.25

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sydney or draw

70%

Sydney or Western Sydney Wanderers

77%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers

53%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+

26%

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals

83%

Sydney 2+ goals

53%

Sydney 3+ goals

26%

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

75%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

40%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)

61%

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.80 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Sydney defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sydney scores more

47%

level

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

30%

Sydney at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Sydney 2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers

Sydney beat Western Sydney Wanderers 2-1 in A-League on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.

Sydney vs Western Sydney Wanderers — A-League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

A-League: Sydney 2–1 Western Sydney Wanderers