Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney vs Newcastle Jets — A-League 2018

Sydney
Sydney
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Newcastle Jets
Newcastle Jets
4/20/2025A-LeagueA-League · Round 27Allianz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Sydney48%
×Draw24%
Newcastle Jets29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.73
Newcastle Jets
1.29

Sydney creates 34% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 107 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.80
Newcastle Jets
1.33

allows per match

Sydney
1.25
Newcastle Jets
1.67

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Newcastle Jets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
71%
Sydney or Newcastle Jets
76%
Draw or Newcastle Jets
52%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
26%
Newcastle Jets wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
82%
Sydney 2+ goals
52%
Sydney 3+ goals
25%
Newcastle Jets 1+ goals
72%
Newcastle Jets 2+ goals
37%
Newcastle Jets 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
62%
Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.80 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Newcastle Jets attack 1.33 + Sydney defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sydney scores more
48%
level
24%
Newcastle Jets scores more
29%

Sydney at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney vs Newcastle Jets

Sydney beat Newcastle Jets 3-2 in A-League on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.