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Sydney vs Melbourne City — A-League 2018

Sydney
Sydneyadvanced
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
8/30/2020A-LeagueA-League · Grand FinalBankwest Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Sydney43%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.63
Melbourne City
1.41

Sydney creates 16% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 108 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.80
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Sydney
1.25
Melbourne City
1.45

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
67%
Sydney or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
57%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
22%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
80%
Sydney 2+ goals
48%
Sydney 3+ goals
22%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
76%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
41%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
56%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.80 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.63

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Sydney defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sydney scores more
43%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
33%

Sydney at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney vs Melbourne City

Sydney and Melbourne City drew 0-0 in A-League on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Bankwest Stadium in Sydney.