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Sydney vs Macarthur — Australia Cup 2021

Sydney
Sydneyadvanced
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Macarthur
Macarthur
12/8/2021Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 16Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sydney29%
×Draw25%
Macarthur46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.24
Macarthur
1.61

Macarthur creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.75
Macarthur
2.73

allows per match

Sydney
0.50
Macarthur
0.73

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
54%
Sydney or Macarthur
75%
Draw or Macarthur
71%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
12%
Macarthur wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
71%
Sydney 2+ goals
35%
Sydney 3+ goals
13%
Macarthur 1+ goals
80%
Macarthur 2+ goals
48%
Macarthur 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
39%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Macarthur away — creates 2.73, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.75 + Macarthur defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.24

Macarthur attack 2.73 + Sydney defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sydney scores more
29%
level
25%
Macarthur scores more
46%

Macarthur at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Macarthur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Sydney 0–0 Macarthur

Sydney and Macarthur drew 0-0 in Australia Cup on December 8, 2021.

The match was played at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium in Sydney.