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Sydney vs Brisbane Roar — A-League 2018

Sydney
Sydney
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
1/31/2020A-LeagueA-League · Round 17Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Sydney50%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.76
Brisbane Roar
1.20

Sydney creates 47% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.80
Brisbane Roar
1.15

allows per match

Sydney
1.25
Brisbane Roar
1.72

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Brisbane Roar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
74%
Sydney or Brisbane Roar
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar
50%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
28%
Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
83%
Sydney 2+ goals
52%
Sydney 3+ goals
26%
Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
70%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
34%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
66%
Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.80 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.76

Brisbane Roar attack 1.15 + Sydney defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sydney scores more
50%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar scores more
26%

Sydney at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney vs Brisbane Roar

Sydney beat Brisbane Roar 1-0 in A-League on January 31, 2020.

The match was played at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium in Sydney.