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Sydney vs Adelaide United — A-League 2018

Sydney
Sydney
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Adelaide United
Adelaide United
1/4/2020A-LeagueA-League · Round 13Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Sydney46%
×Draw23%
Adelaide United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney
1.79
Adelaide United
1.44

Sydney creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sydney
1.80
Adelaide United
1.62

allows per match

Sydney
1.25
Adelaide United
1.78

finishing

Sydney+0.00on par
Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney ↓

Adelaide United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sydney or draw
69%
Sydney or Adelaide United
77%
Draw or Adelaide United
54%

Winning margin

Sydney wins by 2+
25%
Adelaide United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sydney 1+ goals
83%
Sydney 2+ goals
53%
Sydney 3+ goals
26%
Adelaide United 1+ goals
76%
Adelaide United 2+ goals
42%
Adelaide United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sydney (draw refunded)
60%
Adelaide United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.78 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney attack 1.80 + Adelaide United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.79

Adelaide United attack 1.62 + Sydney defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sydney scores more
46%
level
23%
Adelaide United scores more
31%

Sydney at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Sydney 2–1 Adelaide United

Sydney beat Adelaide United 2-1 in A-League on January 4, 2020.

The match was played at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium in Sydney.