Sydney United vs Central Coast Mariners — Australia Cup 2021
Sydney United score first in only 17% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Sydney United10%Central Coast Mariners73%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Central Coast Mariners creates 228% more chances
Season form · 4 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No56
- Yes44
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sydney United ↓
Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sydney United at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches
Central Coast Mariners away — creates 2.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sydney United attack 0.75 + Central Coast Mariners defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68
Central Coast Mariners attack 2.20 + Sydney United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 73%?"
Central Coast Mariners at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 73% does not mean "Central Coast Mariners will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Sydney United and Central Coast Mariners have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings found
Sydney United host Central Coast Mariners on Wednesday, 22 July 2026 at 09:30. The match is part of the Australia Cup 2021/2022 season.
Sydney United face Central Coast Mariners (Australia Cup)
Australia Cup returns with Sydney United hosting Central Coast Mariners. Match starts July 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Sydney United host Central Coast Mariners at Sydney United Sports Centre.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.