Sydney Olympic 0–1 St George City FA

Sydney Olympic

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

St George City FA

2/24/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 2Valentine Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Sydney Olympic40%

×Draw25%

St George City FA35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney OlympicExpected goals in this matchSt George City FA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.35

Sydney Olympic

1.48

St George City FA

1.35

Sydney Olympic creates 10% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 55 away

1.55

creates per match

1.22

1.49

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sydney Olympic

1.55

St George City FA

1.22

allows per match

Sydney Olympic

1.49

St George City FA

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney Olympic+0.00on par

St George City FA+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney Olympic ↓

St George City FA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sydney Olympic or draw

65%

Sydney Olympic or St George City FA

75%

Draw or St George City FA

60%

Winning margin

Sydney Olympic wins by 2+

19%

St George City FA wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sydney Olympic 1+ goals

77%

Sydney Olympic 2+ goals

43%

Sydney Olympic 3+ goals

19%

St George City FA 1+ goals

74%

St George City FA 2+ goals

39%

St George City FA 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sydney Olympic (draw refunded)

54%

St George City FA (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney Olympic at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.49 · 92 matches

St George City FA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney Olympic attack 1.55 + St George City FA defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

St George City FA attack 1.22 + Sydney Olympic defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sydney Olympic scores more

40%

level

25%

St George City FA scores more

35%

Sydney Olympic at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sydney Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff