Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney FC vs Western Sydney — A-League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Western Sydney
Western Sydney
10/27/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 2Sydney Cricket Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Sydney FC47%
×Draw23%
Western Sydney30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.79
Western Sydney
1.38

Sydney FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.80
Western Sydney
1.51

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.25
Western Sydney
1.77

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Western Sydney+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Western Sydney →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
70%
Sydney FC or Western Sydney
77%
Draw or Western Sydney
53%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
26%
Western Sydney wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
83%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
53%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
26%
Western Sydney 1+ goals
75%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
40%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
61%
Western Sydney (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Western Sydney away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.80 + Western Sydney defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Western Sydney attack 1.51 + Sydney FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sydney FC scores more
47%
level
23%
Western Sydney scores more
30%

Sydney FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC vs Western Sydney

Sydney FC beat Western Sydney 2-0 in A-League on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Sydney Cricket Ground in Sydney.