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Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix — A-League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenix
12/8/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 7WIN Jubilee Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Sydney FC49%
×Draw23%
Wellington Phoenix28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.77
Wellington Phoenix
1.27

Sydney FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.80
Wellington Phoenix
1.29

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.25
Wellington Phoenix
1.73

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
72%
Sydney FC or Wellington Phoenix
77%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
51%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
27%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
83%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
53%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
26%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
72%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
36%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
64%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.73 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.80 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.29 + Sydney FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sydney FC scores more
49%
level
23%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
28%

Sydney FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC vs Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix beat Sydney FC 3-1 in A-League on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at WIN Jubilee Oval in Carlton.