Sydney FC 1–0 Perth Glory FC: Result & Stats

Sydney FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Perth Glory FC

4/18/2019

A-League · Round 26WIN Jubilee Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Sydney FC51%

×Draw23%

Perth Glory FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney FCExpected goals in this matchPerth Glory FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.24

Sydney FC

1.81

Perth Glory FC

1.24

Sydney FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 106 away

1.80

creates per match

1.23

1.25

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sydney FC

1.80

Perth Glory FC

1.23

allows per match

Sydney FC

1.25

Perth Glory FC

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par

Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Perth Glory FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw

74%

Sydney FC or Perth Glory FC

77%

Draw or Perth Glory FC

49%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+

28%

Perth Glory FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals

84%

Sydney FC 2+ goals

54%

Sydney FC 3+ goals

27%

Perth Glory FC 1+ goals

71%

Perth Glory FC 2+ goals

35%

Perth Glory FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)

66%

Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Perth Glory FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.80 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Perth Glory FC attack 1.23 + Sydney FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sydney FC scores more

51%

level

23%

Perth Glory FC scores more

26%

Sydney FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff