Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney FC vs Newcastle Jets FC — A-League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Newcastle Jets FC
Newcastle Jets FC
1/19/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 14WIN Jubilee Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Sydney FC48%
×Draw24%
Newcastle Jets FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.73
Newcastle Jets FC
1.29

Sydney FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 107 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.80
Newcastle Jets FC
1.33

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.25
Newcastle Jets FC
1.67

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Newcastle Jets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
71%
Sydney FC or Newcastle Jets FC
76%
Draw or Newcastle Jets FC
52%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
26%
Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
82%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
52%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
25%
Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals
72%
Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals
37%
Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
62%
Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Newcastle Jets FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.80 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.33 + Sydney FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sydney FC scores more
48%
level
24%
Newcastle Jets FC scores more
29%

Sydney FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC vs Newcastle Jets FC

Sydney FC beat Newcastle Jets FC 1-0 in A-League on January 19, 2019.

The match was played at WIN Jubilee Oval in Carlton.