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Sydney FC vs Melbourne Victory — A-League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
11/25/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 5WIN Jubilee Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Sydney FC45%
×Draw24%
Melbourne Victory31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.62
Melbourne Victory
1.31

Sydney FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 109 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.80
Melbourne Victory
1.36

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.25
Melbourne Victory
1.44

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
69%
Sydney FC or Melbourne Victory
76%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
55%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
23%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
80%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
48%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
22%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
73%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
38%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
59%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.80 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.62

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Sydney FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sydney FC scores more
45%
level
24%
Melbourne Victory scores more
31%

Sydney FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Sydney FC 1–2 Melbourne Victory

Melbourne Victory beat Sydney FC 2-1 in A-League on November 25, 2018.

The match was played at WIN Jubilee Oval in Carlton.