Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar FC — A-League 2018

Sydney FC
Sydney FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
12/29/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 10WIN Jubilee Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Sydney FC50%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC
1.76
Brisbane Roar FC
1.20

Sydney FC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 105 away

creates per match

Sydney FC
1.80
Brisbane Roar FC
1.15

allows per match

Sydney FC
1.25
Brisbane Roar FC
1.72

finishing

Sydney FC+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC ↓

Brisbane Roar FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sydney FC or draw
74%
Sydney FC or Brisbane Roar FC
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar FC
50%

Winning margin

Sydney FC wins by 2+
28%
Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sydney FC 1+ goals
83%
Sydney FC 2+ goals
52%
Sydney FC 3+ goals
26%
Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
70%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
34%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC (draw refunded)
66%
Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

Brisbane Roar FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC attack 1.80 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.76

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.15 + Sydney FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sydney FC scores more
50%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar FC scores more
26%

Sydney FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sydney FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sydney FC vs Brisbane Roar FC

Sydney FC beat Brisbane Roar FC 2-1 in A-League on December 29, 2018.

The match was played at WIN Jubilee Oval in Carlton.