Sydney FC U23 1–5 Sydney United: Result & Stats

Sydney FC U23

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Sydney United

Unknown 84'

J. Roberts 57'

C. Payne 40'

P. Antelmi 38', 11', 2'

5/23/2021

New South Wales NPL · Round 13Illinden Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Sydney FC U2336%

×Draw23%

Sydney United41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sydney FC U23Expected goals in this matchSydney United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.77

Sydney FC U23

1.66

Sydney United

1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 96 away

1.78

creates per match

1.56

1.98

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Sydney FC U23

1.78

Sydney United

1.56

allows per match

Sydney FC U23

1.98

Sydney United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par

Sydney United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Sydney United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw

59%

Sydney FC U23 or Sydney United

77%

Draw or Sydney United

64%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+

18%

Sydney United wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals

81%

Sydney FC U23 2+ goals

49%

Sydney FC U23 3+ goals

23%

Sydney United 1+ goals

83%

Sydney United 2+ goals

53%

Sydney United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)

47%

Sydney United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Sydney United away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.54 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Sydney United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sydney United attack 1.56 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more

36%

level

23%

Sydney United scores more

41%

Sydney United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sydney United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

11'

38'

40'

57'

J. Roberts

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff