Sydney FC U23 vs NWS Spirit — New South Wales NPL 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 56+ matches
Sydney FC U2340%
NWS Spirit37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 94 home / 56 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes66
- No34
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sydney FC U23 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches
NWS Spirit away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + NWS Spirit defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69
NWS Spirit attack 1.30 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.64
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Sydney FC U23 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Sydney FC U23 host NWS Spirit on Friday, 28 July 2023 at 09:30. The match is part of the New South Wales NPL 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Sydney FC U23 vs NWS Spirit
Sydney FC U23 beat NWS Spirit 1-0 in New South Wales NPL on July 28, 2023.
Goals: M. Glasson (90+1').
The match was played at Valentine Sports Park 2 Synthetic in Glenwood.