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Sydney FC U23 vs Manly United — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sydney FC U23
Sydney FC U23
FT
1 – 3
Manly United
Manly United
H. Lamberton 6'
N. Taneski 89'
L. Miccio 42', 25'
6/1/2019New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 13Lambert Park (Sydney)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sydney FC U2341%
×Draw23%
Manly United36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydney FC U23
1.71
Manly United
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sydney FC U23
1.78
Manly United
1.16

allows per match

Sydney FC U23
1.98
Manly United
1.64

finishing

Sydney FC U23+0.00on par
Manly United+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydney FC U23 ↓

Manly United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sydney FC U23 or draw
64%
Sydney FC U23 or Manly United
77%
Draw or Manly United
59%

Winning margin

Sydney FC U23 wins by 2+
21%
Manly United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sydney FC U23 1+ goals
82%
Sydney FC U23 2+ goals
51%
Sydney FC U23 3+ goals
24%
Manly United 1+ goals
79%
Manly United 2+ goals
46%
Manly United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Sydney FC U23 (draw refunded)
54%
Manly United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydney FC U23 at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.98 · 94 matches

Manly United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.64 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydney FC U23 attack 1.78 + Manly United defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.71

Manly United attack 1.16 + Sydney FC U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sydney FC U23 scores more
41%
level
23%
Manly United scores more
36%

Sydney FC U23 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sydney FC U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
H. Lamberton
25'
L. Miccio
42'
L. Miccio
89'
N. Taneski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Sydney FC U23 1–3 Manly United

Manly United beat Sydney FC U23 3-1 in New South Wales NPL on June 1, 2019.

Goals: H. Lamberton (6'), L. Miccio (25', 42'), N. Taneski (89').

The match was played at Lambert Park (Sydney).