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SWQ Thunder vs Western Pride — Queensland NPL 2026

SWQ Thunder
SWQ Thunder
FT
2 – 4
Western Pride
Western Pride
3/9/2019Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 6Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

SWQ Thunder42%
×Draw20%
Western Pride37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SWQ Thunder
2.18
Western Pride
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

SWQ Thunder
2.07
Western Pride
1.00

allows per match

SWQ Thunder
3.07
Western Pride
2.29

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw
63%
SWQ Thunder or Western Pride
80%
Draw or Western Pride
58%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+
24%
Western Pride wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals
89%
SWQ Thunder 2+ goals
64%
SWQ Thunder 3+ goals
37%
Western Pride 1+ goals
87%
Western Pride 2+ goals
60%
Western Pride 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)
53%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 2.07, concedes 3.07 · 14 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 2.07 + Western Pride defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.18

Western Pride attack 1.00 + SWQ Thunder defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more
42%
level
20%
Western Pride scores more
37%

SWQ Thunder at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: SWQ Thunder 2–4 Western Pride

Western Pride beat SWQ Thunder 4-2 in Queensland NPL on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Clive Berghofer Stadium in Toowoomba.