SWQ Thunder 0–2 Mitchelton: Result & Stats

SWQ Thunder

FT

0 – 2

Mitchelton

5/29/2021

Queensland Premier League · Round 10Clive Berghofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

SWQ Thunder57%

×Draw20%

Mitchelton24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SWQ ThunderExpected goals in this matchMitchelton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.46

SWQ Thunder

2.33

Mitchelton

1.46

SWQ Thunder creates 60% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 43 away

1.98

creates per match

1.33

1.58

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

SWQ Thunder

1.98

Mitchelton

1.33

allows per match

SWQ Thunder

1.58

Mitchelton

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SWQ Thunder+0.00on par

Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SWQ Thunder ↓

Mitchelton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SWQ Thunder or draw

76%

SWQ Thunder or Mitchelton

80%

Draw or Mitchelton

43%

Winning margin

SWQ Thunder wins by 2+

35%

Mitchelton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SWQ Thunder 1+ goals

90%

SWQ Thunder 2+ goals

67%

SWQ Thunder 3+ goals

41%

Mitchelton 1+ goals

77%

Mitchelton 2+ goals

43%

Mitchelton 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

SWQ Thunder (draw refunded)

71%

Mitchelton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SWQ Thunder at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SWQ Thunder attack 1.98 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + SWQ Thunder defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

SWQ Thunder scores more

57%

level

20%

Mitchelton scores more

24%

SWQ Thunder at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "SWQ Thunder will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff