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Switzerland vs Slovenia — UEFA Nations League 2018

Switzerland
Switzerland
Preview
18:45
Slovenia
Slovenia
10/3/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 3
Big match
50%
Switzerland
model favours
50%26%25%

Switzerland are unbeaten in 7 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Switzerland50%
×Draw26%
Slovenia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland
1.54
Slovenia
1.01

Switzerland creates 52% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Switzerland
2.09
Slovenia
0.85

allows per match

Switzerland
1.18
Slovenia
1.00

finishing

Switzerland+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Switzerland or draw
75%
Switzerland or Slovenia
74%
Draw or Slovenia
50%

Winning margin

Switzerland wins by 2+
25%
Slovenia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Switzerland 1+ goals
79%
Switzerland 2+ goals
45%
Switzerland 3+ goals
20%
Slovenia 1+ goals
64%
Slovenia 2+ goals
27%
Slovenia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Switzerland (draw refunded)
67%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Slovenia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland attack 2.09 + Slovenia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Slovenia attack 0.85 + Switzerland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Switzerland scores more
50%
level
26%
Slovenia scores more
25%

Switzerland at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Switzerland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 59% of Switzerland’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Switzerland 4 vs Slovenia 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Switzerland
Balanced
Slovenia
Balanced
51%Possession45%
84%Pass accuracy77%
13.4ShotsBiggest gap8.8
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SwitzerlandSlovenia

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Switzerland
DDWWW
Slovenia
LDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Switzerland face Slovenia (UEFA Nations League)

UEFA Nations League returns with Switzerland hosting Slovenia. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.