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Switzerland U17 vs Spain U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Switzerland U17
Switzerland U17
Preview
13:00
Spain U17
Spain U17
10/18/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
41%
Spain U17
model favours
37%22%41%

Top-of-the-table clash — Switzerland U17 3 vs Spain U17 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Switzerland U1737%
×Draw22%
Spain U1741%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Switzerland U17
1.80
Spain U17
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 8 away

creates per match

Switzerland U17
2.11
Spain U17
2.88

allows per match

Switzerland U17
0.89
Spain U17
1.50

finishing

Switzerland U17+0.00on par
Spain U17+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Switzerland U17 ↓

Spain U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Switzerland U17 or draw
59%
Switzerland U17 or Spain U17
78%
Draw or Spain U17
63%

Winning margin

Switzerland U17 wins by 2+
19%
Spain U17 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Switzerland U17 1+ goals
83%
Switzerland U17 2+ goals
54%
Switzerland U17 3+ goals
27%
Spain U17 1+ goals
85%
Spain U17 2+ goals
56%
Spain U17 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Switzerland U17 (draw refunded)
48%
Spain U17 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Switzerland U17 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Spain U17 away — creates 2.88, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Switzerland U17 attack 2.11 + Spain U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Spain U17 attack 2.88 + Switzerland U17 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Switzerland U17 scores more
37%
level
22%
Spain U17 scores more
41%

Spain U17 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spain U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Switzerland U17 and Spain U17 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LWLD
U17
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Switzerland U17 vs Spain U17 — Match Preview

Switzerland U17 face Spain U17 on October 18, 2026 in this UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.