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Swindon Town vs York — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
15:00
York
York
2/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 32County Ground
45%
Swindon Town
model favours
45%25%29%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Swindon Town45%
×Draw25%
York29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.52
York
1.17

Swindon Town creates 30% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 15 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.65
York
1.13

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.22
York
1.40

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
71%
Swindon Town or York
75%
Draw or York
55%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
23%
York wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
45%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
20%
York 1+ goals
69%
York 2+ goals
33%
York 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
61%
York (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

York attack 1.13 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Swindon Town scores more
45%
level
25%
York scores more
29%

Swindon Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 83% over 2.5)
  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town vs York — Match Preview

Swindon Town face York on February 20, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Swindon Town host York at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.