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Swindon Town vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
15:00
Tranmere
Tranmere
12/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 20County Ground
Big match
41%
Swindon Town
model favours
41%25%34%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Swindon Town41%
×Draw25%
Tranmere34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.51
Tranmere
1.36

Swindon Town creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.64
Tranmere
1.18

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.55
Tranmere
1.39

finishing

Swindon Town+0.13scores more
Tranmere-0.18scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
66%
Swindon Town or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
59%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%
Tranmere wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
44%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
19%
Tranmere 1+ goals
74%
Tranmere 2+ goals
39%
Tranmere 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
54%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 13 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.39 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.64 + Tranmere defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Tranmere attack 1.18 + Swindon Town defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swindon Town scores more
41%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
34%

Swindon Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Swindon Town sit 9, Tranmere 21 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Tranmere
Balanced
53%Possession50%
71%Pass accuracy67%
12.5Shots12.1
1.50xGBiggest gap1.13
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownTranmere

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Swindon Town
3
Draws
3
Tranmere
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 60%
1–02–13–11–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
Tranmere
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town face Tranmere (League Two)

League Two returns with Swindon Town hosting Tranmere. Match starts December 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swindon Town host Tranmere at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.