Swindon Town 1–1 Tranmere: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tranmere

J. Wakeling 30'

J. Hawkes 9'

11/12/2022

League Two · Round 18The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Swindon Town42%

×Draw25%

Tranmere33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchTranmere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.31

Swindon Town

1.52

Tranmere

1.31

Swindon Town creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.62

creates per match

1.15

1.48

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.62

Tranmere

1.15

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Tranmere

1.42

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more

Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Tranmere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

67%

Swindon Town or Tranmere

75%

Draw or Tranmere

58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

21%

Tranmere wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

45%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

20%

Tranmere 1+ goals

73%

Tranmere 2+ goals

38%

Tranmere 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

56%

Tranmere (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more

42%

level

25%

Tranmere scores more

33%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

R. Hutton

Swindon Town · M

7.5

Match Events

9'

J. Hawkes↳ C. Merrie

30'

J. Wakeling↳ R. Hutton

34'

Jordan Turnbull

59'

Elliott Nevitt

74'

M. Lavinier← E. Iandolo

82'

L. Reed← S. Khan

83'

M. Roberts← J. Wakeling

83'

86'

90'

90+5'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonTranmere

Overview

62%Possession38%

9Total Shots8

4Corners0

8Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target3

3Off Target2

3Blocked3

5Inside Box6

4Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

533Total Passes331

432Accurate Passes239

81%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3