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Swindon Town vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tranmere
Tranmere
8/17/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 3The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Swindon Town42%
×Draw25%
Tranmere33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.52
Tranmere
1.31

Swindon Town creates 16% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.62
Tranmere
1.15

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.48
Tranmere
1.42

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more
Tranmere-0.06on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
67%
Swindon Town or Tranmere
75%
Draw or Tranmere
58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
21%
Tranmere wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
78%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
45%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
20%
Tranmere 1+ goals
73%
Tranmere 2+ goals
38%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
56%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Tranmere away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Tranmere defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tranmere attack 1.15 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more
42%
level
25%
Tranmere scores more
33%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. MurphyTranmereTranmere · G
8.2

Match Events

50'
Tom Davies
53'
Harry McKirdy
61'
B. Gladwin← H. Parsons
72'
P. Glatzel← L. Feeney
72'
S. Foley← R. Watson
77'
J. Williams← H. McKirdy
77'
E. Nevitt← E. Dieseruvwe
81'
E. Iandolo← R. Hunt
87'
Nathaniel Knight-Percival
90+5'
Joe Murphy

Possession

63%Swindon

Shots

15Swindon

Pass accuracy

53%Swindon

Statistics

SwindonTranmere
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots14
7Corners4
15Fouls22
Shots
15Total Shots14
7On Target3
3Off Target6
5Blocked5
10Inside Box9
5Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
586Total Passes351
509Accurate Passes266
87%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls22
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Swindon Town vs Tranmere

Swindon Town and Tranmere drew 0-0 in League Two on August 17, 2021.

Swindon Town controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at The County Ground in Swindon, Wiltshire.