Swindon Town 0–1 Northampton: Result & Stats

Swindon Town

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Northampton

8/20/2019

League Two · Round 4The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Swindon Town42%

×Draw26%

Northampton32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchNorthampton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.23

Swindon Town

1.44

Northampton

1.23

Swindon Town creates 17% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 88 away

1.65

creates per match

1.24

1.22

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.65

Northampton

1.24

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.22

Northampton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par

Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Northampton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

68%

Swindon Town or Northampton

74%

Draw or Northampton

58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

20%

Northampton wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

76%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

42%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

18%

Northampton 1+ goals

71%

Northampton 2+ goals

35%

Northampton 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

57%

Northampton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Northampton attack 1.24 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more

42%

level

26%

Northampton scores more

32%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff