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Swindon Town vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Swindon Town
Swindon Town
Preview
19:45
Exeter City
Exeter City
12/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 22County Ground
Big match
42%
Swindon Town
model favours
42%25%33%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Swindon Town42%
×Draw25%
Exeter City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Swindon Town
1.48
Exeter City
1.29

Swindon Town creates 15% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 97 away

creates per match

Swindon Town
1.65
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Swindon Town
1.22
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Swindon Town+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw
67%
Swindon Town or Exeter City
75%
Draw or Exeter City
58%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+
20%
Exeter City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals
77%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
43%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
19%
Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
37%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)
56%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.22 · 139 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.65 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Swindon Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Swindon Town scores more
42%
level
25%
Exeter City scores more
33%

Swindon Town at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Swindon Town
Balanced
Exeter City
Balanced
54%Possession51%
72%Pass accuracyBiggest gap63%
12.6Shots12.1
1.50xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Swindon TownExeter City

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Swindon Town
3
Draws
6
Exeter City
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 90%
1–20–11–31–23–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
LLWL
City
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Swindon Town face Exeter City (League Two)

League Two returns with Swindon Town hosting Exeter City. Match starts December 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Swindon Town host Exeter City at County Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.