Swindon Town 2–2 Crewe: Result & Stats | League Two

Swindon Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Crewe

J. Young 47'

U. Godwin-Malife 21'

R. Adebisi 85'

Z. Williams 60'

8/12/2023

League Two · Round 2The County Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Swindon Town41%

×Draw25%

Crewe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Swindon TownExpected goals in this matchCrewe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.39

Swindon Town

1.53

Crewe

1.39

Swindon Town creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 8 away

1.62

creates per match

1.30

1.48

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Swindon Town

1.62

Crewe

1.30

allows per match

Swindon Town

1.48

Crewe

1.44

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Swindon Town+0.24scores more

Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Swindon Town ↓

Crewe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Swindon Town or draw

65%

Swindon Town or Crewe

75%

Draw or Crewe

59%

Winning margin

Swindon Town wins by 2+

20%

Crewe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Swindon Town 1+ goals

78%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

45%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

20%

Crewe 1+ goals

75%

Crewe 2+ goals

40%

Crewe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

54%

Crewe (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Swindon Town at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.48 · 14 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Swindon Town attack 1.62 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Crewe attack 1.30 + Swindon Town defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Swindon Town scores more

41%

level

25%

Crewe scores more

35%

Swindon Town at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

U. Godwin-Malife

Swindon Town · D

7.9

Match Events

15'

Jack Powell

15'

Rio Adebisi

20'

Zac Williams

21'

U. Godwin-Malife↳ B. Ward

23'

Conor Thomas

26'

George McEachran

46'

T. Uwakwe← B. Ward

46'

J. Young← J. Wakeling

46'

M. Holíček← C. Thomas

47'

J. Young↳ F. Blake-Tracy

60'

Z. Williams↳ J. Powell

61'

E. Nevitt← C. Baker-Richardson

67'

Christopher Long

67'

R. Cooney← J. Powell

78'

L. Kinsella← G. McEachran

82'

Murphy Mahoney

85'

R. Adebisi↳ J. Tabiner

87'

Frazer Blake-Tracy

90+6'

Tom Brewitt

90+2'

Harvey Davies

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SwindonCrewe

Overview

63%Possession37%

20Total Shots16

7Corners2

13Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots16

6On Target5

7Off Target8

7Blocked3

10Inside Box8

10Outside Box8

Passing

63%Possession37%

589Total Passes344

505Accurate Passes263

86%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls13

4Yellow Cards6

0Offsides1